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First off, starting here on the US Dollar versus the Swiss Franc [USDCHF]. We’ve been studying this falling trend channel or trend range, if you will, here on the daily timeframe for quite some time. We could see the two red trend lines on the daily timeframe. The top one and the bottom one. Most importantly is that we’re coming off the bottom of that trend channel in recent weeks.
We could see, over the past history of this trend channel, a test of the bottom of the top left-hand corner. Test of the bottom. Took a rally all the way back up into the 1.0200s. Then it took a fall back down to the bottom of the channel, and then back up into the 1.0000s. And then we came back down over the past couple weeks and challenging the bottom of the channel, and now we’re rising off of there.
I think what’s interesting over the past couple of days is that zooming it in here we see a low, and now a higher low and a higher high. That’s what we’re going to continue to focus our efforts on here in the live Trade Room and in our daily analysis, is the rising pattern that we’re seeing now along this blue trend line, because history shows us that it could take a turn all the way back up towards the top of the range. So, that’s what we’re trading.
We actually took a buy on the dip to support into the pink-shaded area, the 0.9600-level. You could see the buying going down at 0.9605. Currently sitting about 95 pips of profit. We had a little bit more than that a little while ago, when it hit up there into the 0.9720-level, but coming back for us a little bit. I have locked in with my stop loss 40 pips of profit on the trade and I’ve closed a majority. I’ve closed about 75 percent of the trade and locked in with the stop loss with 40 pips of profit. So, all in all, it’s a profitable trade. Can’t lose. I would like to see if we could see some further movement higher.
Of course ECB today could be very interesting. In about 35 minutes from the recording of this video, we have ECB press conference. If it’s in any way negative for the Euro, we could see this take a turn higher on the USDCHF. Pushing through the 0.9750-level, the yellow-shaded area will start our journey towards the top of the range. Any positive movement for the Euro could lead to a fall or slide here on the USDCHF and we’ll likely see our stop loss taken out, with profit of course, but taken out as it goes back down.
Zoom it down to the four-hour timeframe, and again, I want to be sure that you understand I’m not using the trade manager here. I’ve just taken a hard stop loss and put it at plus 40 pips, right underneath the blue-shaded area because I want to see that blue zone hold as support. Just like it held as resistance here, I want to see it hold as support here, so that’s what I’m looking for today. A hold of support. We don’t want it to break underneath the blue-shaded area because that’s where our stop loss is currently. I’d like to see some positive movement. A break above 0.9750 continues the upward journey. Currently of course finding resistance right there at the yellow-shaded area.
Another trade that we’ve been following is the USDJPY. We’ve been following this trend pattern inside the black box for several days now. Took a trade a couple of weeks ago here into the orange-shaded area. Profited up towards the purple zone a couple of days ago. Taken another buy here. There’s the buy going down here at the bottom. 109 was the buy price. We’re at 73 pips of profit at the current moment. Seen a little bit more than that. Not much more. A little bit more than that here, but come back down towards the 109.65-level.
Disclaimer:
This video is for general information only and is not intended to provide trading or investment advice or personal recommendations. Any information relating to past performance of an investment does not necessarily guarantee future performance. Forex Traders Daily including its analysts shall not be responsible for any loss that you incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information in this video. Please remember derivatives and FX spot carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits.
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